Need your advice, guys

[jcambert]

I bought shares of Aghdashloo at Wsex futures exchange at $9 per share, and, I could get $16 per share for her right now. Should I hold on to her, in case she wins? Or should I take the guaranteed profit right now?

Any thoughts?
JP

 

[Redneckman]

I'd probably let er ride, jc. It was selling for $20 earlier this morning, you must have just missed it.

 

[lakerfan]

I am letting my my bet on her ride. 9-1 at WWTS. I would only hedge now if your bet on her is much bigger than all of your bets. Or if you specifically over bought with the intention of selling when she went up. With WSEX 5 dollar spread you are giving up a lot of value selling

 

[jcambert]

Thanks, Lakerfan. What did you play tonight? And, what is your breakdown of the races, if you don't mind? You and Royler are usually pretty insightful when it comes to these things.

JP

 

[lakerfan]

JC,

My full card which I think I started betting only about two weeks ago is:

Very Large

Supporting - Tim Robbin Bet from -170 to -200

Medium

Supporting - Aghadashool +900

Foreign - Barbarian Invasion -250

Sound Editing - Master and Commander -250

Small

Documentary - My Architect +1100

Cinematography - Master and Commander +600

For me to have a winning night I just need Robbins. He loses and I am stuck unless I win all the other bets.

As far as other races I haven't followed them closely unless I saw value at first glance (so nothing to interesting to add), I think LOTR, Jackson are close to locks. Next would be Theron very likely to win. Actor I would take Murray b/c he is getting odds, but Penn maybe slightly more likely.

The only thing to watch is the documentary catagory. I have heard people talk like it is a two film race with no chance for any of the other three. If you look to the history of the doc catagory you will find tons of smaller films winning. The people who vote in this area are often very "snobbish" and don't like to vote for the more popular choices. The buzz among some of these people is that My Architect is going to win. Have no idea how much of a chance it has, but I would say at least 10%. Lot of industry people I talk to are picking it.

All the best to everyone tonight.

[This message was edited by lakerfan on February 29, 2004 at 07:31 PM.]

 

[Oren1]

Congrats Lakerfan.

 

[lakerfan]

You too Oren.

It took some balls to take Penn. Nice call.

And of course we both enjoyed Robbins (YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHH) and Master and Commander.

Was a good year, I can't complain.